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Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Deportivo Pasto 5.5, Alianza Valledupar 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.9 yellow cards: Deportivo Pasto 2.9, Alianza Valledupar 3.0; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 70% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 70%, typical match 67%.
Result
Our model: Deportivo Pasto win 52%, draw 25%, Alianza Valledupar win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 50%.
Form
Deportivo Pasto: last five matches — L-L-L-W-D.
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Alianza Valledupar: last five matches — L-L-W-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Deportivo Pasto — 11, Alianza Valledupar — 17 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Deportivo Pasto at home and Alianza Valledupar away, 2024–2026.
| Deportivo Pasto | Alianza Valledupar | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 59 | 54 |
| Win rate | 47% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 8.0 | 8.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 50% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Deportivo Pasto won 9, 9 draws, Alianza Valledupar won 6. Per match: 2.2 goals, 9.8 corners, 5.9 yellow cards.
- 01.04.2026: Alianza Valledupar 0:0 Deportivo Pasto
- 05.10.2025: Deportivo Pasto 3:3 Alianza Valledupar
- 15.04.2025: Alianza Valledupar 1:0 Deportivo Pasto
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our model expects 5.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 70%.
Who is more likely to win Deportivo Pasto vs Alianza Valledupar?
Our model: Deportivo Pasto 52%, draw 25%, Alianza Valledupar 24%.