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ES Hammam-Sousse vs Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer: prediction and statistics
Tunisia · Ligue 1 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: ES Hammam-Sousse · Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer
Before kick-off
Ligue 1, 20 November 2026: ES Hammam-Sousse are at home to Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer sit 5th in the 16-team table while ES Hammam-Sousse are 16th, so 11 places separate the two sides. ES Hammam-Sousse are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
ES Hammam-Sousse are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches.
ES Hammam-Sousse have not made their ground a fortress: 1 draw and 2 defeats in 3 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. The away record of Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer: 1 win, 3 draws and 2 defeats in 6 matches, with 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded on average.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
ES Hammam-Sousse: last five matches — L-W-D-L-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 losses in a row · all competitions
Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer: last five matches — D-W-D-D-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: ES Hammam-Sousse — 16, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer — 5 (of 16).
Home and away record
ES Hammam-Sousse at home and Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| ES Hammam-Sousse | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 3 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 0-1-2 | 1-3-2 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.3 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.0 |
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Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer is the more likely winner in our model: 53%, draw 27%.
Result
Our model: ES Hammam-Sousse win 20%, draw 27%, Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer win 53%. Over 2.5 goals — 39%, both teams to score — 42%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| ES Hammam-Sousse | Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 0% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 33% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 33% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.