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Olympique Béja vs AS Marsa: prediction and statistics
Tunisia · Ligue 1 · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Olympique Béja · AS Marsa
Before kick-off
Ligue 1, 20 November 2026: Olympique Béja are at home to AS Marsa. Olympique Béja go into the match 15th of 16 in the table, AS Marsa are 10th. Olympique Béja are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Olympique Béja: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. AS Marsa have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
Olympique Béja have not made their ground a fortress: 9 wins, 9 draws and 15 defeats in 33 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Trips have rarely paid off for AS Marsa — 3 wins, 2 draws and 12 defeats in 17 away matches, scoring 0.9 and conceding 1.1 on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Olympique Béja and 2.0 in away matches of AS Marsa.
Head to head there is no clear master over 5 meetings — wins: Olympique Béja 2, AS Marsa 2; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 3 April 2026, finished AS Marsa 1:0 Olympique Béja. On average these meetings produce 3.4 goals.
Form
Olympique Béja: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
AS Marsa: last five matches — W-D-L-L-D.
- 9 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Olympique Béja — 15, AS Marsa — 10 (of 16).
Home and away record
Olympique Béja at home and AS Marsa away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Olympique Béja | AS Marsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 17 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 9-9-15 | 3-2-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Head to head
5 meetings in our database: Olympique Béja won 2, 1 draws, AS Marsa won 2. Per match: 3.4 goals.
- 03.04.2026: AS Marsa 1:0 Olympique Béja
- 04.10.2025: Olympique Béja 0:6 AS Marsa
- 22.06.2024: Olympique Béja 2:2 AS Marsa
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 32% – 31% – 37%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 49% of Olympique Béja’s home matches and 35% of AS Marsa’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Olympique Béja 2.0, AS Marsa 2.2; typical match of the competition — 4.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 55%.
Result
Our model: Olympique Béja win 32%, draw 31%, AS Marsa win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 40%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Olympique Béja | AS Marsa | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 27% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 29% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 42% | 35% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.2 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.