Xpect
Estrella Roja vs Lobos Upnfm: prediction and statistics
Honduras · Liga Nacional · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Estrella Roja · Lobos Upnfm
Before kick-off
Estrella Roja host Lobos Upnfm in Liga Nacional on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Estrella Roja are 5th, Lobos Upnfm 6th in a table of 12.
Estrella Roja have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Lobos Upnfm: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home matches have been a struggle for Estrella Roja (2024–2026) — 2 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats in 7 games, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.6 on average. Lobos Upnfm find it hard on the road: 7 wins, 11 draws and 27 defeats in 45 away matches, 0.9 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. Last time out (15 August 2026) it ended Lobos Upnfm 2:2 Estrella Roja.
Form
Estrella Roja: last five matches — D-D-L-W-L.
Lobos Upnfm: last five matches — L-L-W-W-D.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
Table: Estrella Roja — 5, Lobos Upnfm — 6 (of 12).
Home and away record
Estrella Roja at home and Lobos Upnfm away, 2024–2026.
| Estrella Roja | Lobos Upnfm | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 7 | 45 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 2-2-3 | 7-11-27 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Estrella Roja won 0, 1 draws, Lobos Upnfm won 0. Per match: 4.0 goals.
- 15.08.2026: Lobos Upnfm 2:2 Estrella Roja
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 71% of Estrella Roja home games and 47% of Lobos Upnfm away games.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Estrella Roja 1.6, Lobos Upnfm 3.7; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 61% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 61%, typical match 59%.
Result
Our model: Estrella Roja win 49%, draw 23%, Lobos Upnfm win 28%. Over 2.5 goals — 58%, both teams to score — 59%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Estrella Roja | Lobos Upnfm | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 29% | 16% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 42% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.9 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 62% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.