Xpect
Génesis vs Atletico Independiente: prediction and statistics
Honduras · Liga Nacional · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Génesis · Atletico Independiente
Before kick-off
Génesis host Atletico Independiente in Liga Nacional on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Génesis are 8th, Atletico Independiente 10th in a table of 12. Atletico Independiente are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Génesis are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Atletico Independiente no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Measured in points the two runs are close — 2 and 2.
The home record of Génesis (2024–2026) is balanced: 13 wins, 20 draws and 16 defeats in 49 matches, 1.3 scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Atletico Independiente find it hard on the road: 3 draws and 4 defeats in 7 away matches, 0.6 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 1 meeting between them. Last time out (22 August 2026) it ended Atletico Independiente 1:1 Génesis.
Form
Génesis: last five matches — L-D-L-L-D.
- 5 matches without a win · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Atletico Independiente: last five matches — L-L-D-L-D.
- 7 matches without a win · away
Table: Génesis — 8, Atletico Independiente — 10 (of 12).
Home and away record
Génesis at home and Atletico Independiente away, 2024–2026.
| Génesis | Atletico Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 49 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 13-20-16 | 0-3-4 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.7 |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: Génesis won 0, 1 draws, Atletico Independiente won 0. Per match: 2.0 goals.
- 22.08.2026: Atletico Independiente 1:1 Génesis
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 45% of Génesis home games and 43% of Atletico Independiente away games.
- Our model makes Génesis the favourite at 52%; a draw is 25%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Génesis 2.1, Atletico Independiente 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 76%.
Result
Our model: Génesis win 52%, draw 25%, Atletico Independiente win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Génesis | Atletico Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 27% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 53% | 57% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 43% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.0 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.