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Real Espana vs CD Marathon: prediction and statistics
Honduras · Liga Nacional · 22 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Real Espana · CD Marathon
Before kick-off
Liga Nacional, 22 November 2026: Real Espana are at home to CD Marathon. They are neighbours in the table: Real Espana are 2nd and CD Marathon 3rd of 12. Both sides are in the top three.
Few sides are in better shape than Real Espana right now — 5 wins from the last 5 games. CD Marathon are still looking for a win: 3 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 15 for Real Espana against 3 for CD Marathon.
Real Espana are hard to beat on their own ground — 33 wins, 11 draws and 9 defeats in 53 home matches (2024–2026), with 1.6 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game. The away record of CD Marathon: 17 wins, 23 draws and 13 defeats in 53 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 74 meetings — wins: Real Espana 21, CD Marathon 33; draws: 20. The most recent meeting, on 23 August 2026, finished CD Marathon 1:1 Real Espana. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Real Espana: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 16 matches unbeaten · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · at home
CD Marathon: last five matches — L-D-D-D-L.
- 6 matches without a win · away
Table: Real Espana — 2, CD Marathon — 3 (of 12).
Home and away record
Real Espana at home and CD Marathon away, 2024–2026.
| Real Espana | CD Marathon | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 53 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 33-11-9 | 17-23-13 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Head to head
74 meetings in our database: Real Espana won 21, 20 draws, CD Marathon won 33. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 23.08.2026: CD Marathon 1:1 Real Espana
- 19.05.2026: Real Espana 1:1 CD Marathon
- 03.05.2026: CD Marathon 1:0 Real Espana
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 43% – 27% – 30%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 42% of Real Espana’s home matches and 45% of CD Marathon’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.5 yellow cards: Real Espana 2.5, CD Marathon 3.0; typical match of the competition — 5.2. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 64% (typical match — 59%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 64%, typical match 59%.
Result
Our model: Real Espana win 43%, draw 27%, CD Marathon win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Real Espana | CD Marathon | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 62% | 32% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 68% | 62% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.