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Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: Estudiantes L.P. 5.1, San Lorenzo 3.7. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 38% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Estudiantes L.P. 2.6, San Lorenzo 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 57% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 57%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Estudiantes L.P. win 47%, draw 30%, San Lorenzo win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 38%.
Form
Estudiantes L.P.: last five matches — D-D-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
San Lorenzo: last five matches — L-D-L-D-L.
- 9 matches without a win · away
- 5 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Estudiantes L.P. — 10, San Lorenzo — 21 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Estudiantes L.P. at home and San Lorenzo away, 2024–2026.
| Estudiantes L.P. | San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 47 |
| Win rate | 50% | 23% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 19% |
| Both teams score | 48% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 41% | 34% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 64% | 70% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Estudiantes L.P. won 2, 8 draws, San Lorenzo won 7. Per match: 1.9 goals, 8.5 corners, 6.1 yellow cards.
- 03.04.2026: San Lorenzo 1:0 Estudiantes L.P.
- 05.11.2024: San Lorenzo 1:1 Estudiantes L.P.
- 13.02.2024: San Lorenzo 1:1 Estudiantes L.P.
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo?
Our model expects 8.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 38%.
How many yellow cards in Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 57%.
Who is more likely to win Estudiantes L.P. vs San Lorenzo?
Our model: Estudiantes L.P. 47%, draw 30%, San Lorenzo 23%.