Xpect
Farense vs Chaves: prediction and statistics
Portugal · Liga 2 · 4 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.3 corners in the match: Farense 5.6, Chaves 4.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 58% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 58%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Farense 2.7, Chaves 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.4. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 63%, typical match 62%.
Form
Farense: last five matches — W-D-L-W-D.
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Chaves: last five matches — W-L-L-L-L.
- 4 losses in a row · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Farense — 10, Chaves — 16 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Farense at home and Chaves away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Farense | Chaves | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 20 | 36 |
| Win rate | 30% | 39% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 47% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 7.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 40% | 25% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.8 | 5.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 70% | 53% |
Head to head
8 meetings in our database: Farense won 3, 1 draws, Chaves won 4. Per match: 2.6 goals, 9.0 corners, 6.1 yellow cards.
- 22.02.2026: Chaves 2:0 Farense
- 28.09.2025: Farense 0:2 Chaves
- 04.02.2024: Chaves 1:1 Farense
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Farense vs Chaves?
Our model expects 10.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 58%.
How many yellow cards in Farense vs Chaves?
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 63%.