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FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: FC Porto · PSV Eindhoven
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: FC Porto 4.7, PSV Eindhoven 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: FC Porto 2.3, PSV Eindhoven 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 58% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 58%, typical match 43%.
Result
Our model: FC Porto win 35%, draw 23%, PSV Eindhoven win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 67%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
FC Porto
All 13: 7W · 3D · 3L · goals 18:12
Home 7: 5W · 1D · 1L · goals 13:6
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Manchester City (h) 0:2
- 16.04.26 · UEL · Nottingham Forest (a) 0:1
- 09.04.26 · UEL · Nottingham Forest (h) 1:1
- 19.03.26 · UEL · VfB Stuttgart (h) 2:0
- 12.03.26 · UEL · VfB Stuttgart (a) 2:1
League · Primeira Liga 2026/27: 1 of 18 · 8W · 0D · 0L · goals 20:4. Portugal — 6 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 65.8).
PSV Eindhoven
All 9: 2W · 3D · 4L · goals 17:17
Away 4: 1W · 2D · 1L · goals 6:6
- 10.09.26 · UCL · Shakhtar Donetsk (h) 1:1
- 28.01.26 · UCL · Bayern München (h) 1:2
- 21.01.26 · UCL · Newcastle (a) 0:3
- 09.12.25 · UCL · Atletico Madrid (h) 2:3
- 26.11.25 · UCL · Liverpool (a) 4:1
League · Eredivisie 2026/27: 2 of 18 · 6W · 1D · 1L · goals 26:10. Netherlands — 8 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 52.6).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: FC Porto — 31 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played; PSV Eindhoven — 18 of 36 · 1 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
FC Porto: last five matches — W-W-W-L-W.
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
PSV Eindhoven: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Team statistics for three seasons
FC Porto at home and PSV Eindhoven away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| FC Porto | PSV Eindhoven | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 1 | 10 |
| Win rate | 0% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 0% | 80% |
| Total corners per match | 7.0 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 30% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 58%.
Who is more likely to win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?
Our model: FC Porto 35%, draw 23%, PSV Eindhoven 43%.