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Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.6 corners in the match: Getafe 5.0, Rayo Vallecano 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 49% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 8.5 — 62%, typical match 62%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Getafe 2.7, Rayo Vallecano 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 63%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Getafe win 37%, draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Getafe: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 4 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Rayo Vallecano: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 5 matches without a win · away
Table: Getafe — 14, Rayo Vallecano — 13 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Getafe at home and Rayo Vallecano away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Getafe | Rayo Vallecano | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 42 |
| Win rate | 33% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 21% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 41% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | 7.8 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 26% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 62% | 62% |
Head to head
25 meetings in our database: Getafe won 4, 8 draws, Rayo Vallecano won 13. Per match: 1.8 goals, 9.3 corners, 7.0 yellow cards.
- 03.05.2026: Getafe 0:2 Rayo Vallecano
- 02.01.2026: Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Getafe
- 02.05.2025: Rayo Vallecano 1:0 Getafe
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model expects 9.6 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 49%.
How many yellow cards in Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 63%.
Who is more likely to win Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model: Getafe 37%, draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano 35%.