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Osasuna vs Racing Santander: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.7 corners in the match: Osasuna 5.4, Racing Santander 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 51% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 51%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Osasuna 2.6, Racing Santander 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 62% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 62%, typical match 56%.
Result
Our model: Osasuna win 46%, draw 23%, Racing Santander win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 63%, both teams to score — 64%.
Form
Osasuna: last five matches — L-D-W-L-D.
- 6 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 6 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
Racing Santander: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 6 losses in a row · away
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Osasuna — 14, Racing Santander — 16 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Osasuna at home and Racing Santander away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Osasuna | Racing Santander | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 4 |
| Win rate | 48% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 4.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 75% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 8.6 | 13.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 26% | 75% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 52% | 75% |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Osasuna won 6, 8 draws, Racing Santander won 12. Per match: 2.3 goals, 10.5 corners, 5.6 yellow cards.
- 24.07.2026: Osasuna 2:0 Racing Santander
- 02.08.2025: Osasuna 0:1 Racing Santander
- 13.05.2012: Racing Santander 2:4 Osasuna
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Our model expects 9.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 51%.
How many yellow cards in Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 62%.
Who is more likely to win Osasuna vs Racing Santander?
Our model: Osasuna 46%, draw 23%, Racing Santander 31%.