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Celta Vigo vs Alavés: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Celta Vigo 5.2, Alavés 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards: Celta Vigo 2.0, Alavés 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 41% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 59%, typical match 44%.
Result
Our model: Celta Vigo win 46%, draw 25%, Alavés win 30%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 57%.
Form
Celta Vigo: last five matches — D-L-L-D-W.
Alavés: last five matches — W-D-D-L-D.
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Celta Vigo — 15, Alavés — 6 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Celta Vigo at home and Alavés away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Celta Vigo | Alavés | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 42 | 41 |
| Win rate | 43% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 62% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 8.3 | 9.1 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 29% | 39% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 5.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 56% |
Head to head
30 meetings in our database: Celta Vigo won 12, 8 draws, Alavés won 10. Per match: 2.5 goals, 8.2 corners, 5.2 yellow cards.
- 22.03.2026: Celta Vigo 3:4 Alavés
- 22.11.2025: Alavés 0:1 Celta Vigo
- 27.01.2025: Alavés 1:1 Celta Vigo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Our model expects 4.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 41%.
Who is more likely to win Celta Vigo vs Alavés?
Our model: Celta Vigo 46%, draw 25%, Alavés 30%.