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Villarreal vs Elche: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Villarreal 5.4, Elche 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards: Villarreal 2.0, Elche 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 45% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 56%, typical match 44%.
Result
Market line without margin: Villarreal win 64%, draw 21%, Elche win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 58%.
Form
Villarreal: last five matches — D-W-L-L-W.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Elche: last five matches — D-D-L-D-W.
- 8 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Table: Villarreal — 9, Elche — 18 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Villarreal at home and Elche away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Villarreal | Elche | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 23 |
| Win rate | 61% | 9% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 76% | 61% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 87% |
| Total corners per match | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 56% | 30% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 34% | 35% |
Head to head
12 meetings in our database: Villarreal won 6, 4 draws, Elche won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals, 11.4 corners, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 08.03.2026: Villarreal 2:1 Elche
- 03.01.2026: Elche 1:3 Villarreal
- 04.02.2023: Elche 3:1 Villarreal
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Villarreal vs Elche?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Villarreal vs Elche?
Our model expects 4.4 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 45%.
Who is more likely to win Villarreal vs Elche?
Market line without margin: Villarreal 64%, draw 21%, Elche 16%.