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Goias vs Nautico Recife: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 19 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Goias 5.0, Nautico Recife 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 10.5 — 56%, typical match 54%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Goias 2.1, Nautico Recife 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Goias win 51%, draw 27%, Nautico Recife win 23%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 45%.
Form
Goias: last five matches — W-L-W-L-W.
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Nautico Recife: last five matches — D-D-L-L-D.
- 11 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: Goias — 10, Nautico Recife — 14 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Goias at home and Nautico Recife away, 2024–2026.
| Goias | Nautico Recife | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 54 | 16 |
| Win rate | 59% | 19% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 63% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 61% | 63% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.5 | 4.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 44% | 44% |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Goias won 6, 0 draws, Nautico Recife won 3. Per match: 2.9 goals, 11.4 corners, 3.0 yellow cards.
- 28.06.2026: Nautico Recife 0:1 Goias
- 06.10.2021: Nautico Recife 3:2 Goias
- 10.07.2021: Goias 0:1 Nautico Recife
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Goias vs Nautico Recife?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Goias vs Nautico Recife?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Goias vs Nautico Recife?
Our model: Goias 51%, draw 27%, Nautico Recife 23%.