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Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 16 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.5 corners in the match: Sport Recife 5.6, Fortaleza EC 4.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Sport Recife 2.1, Fortaleza EC 2.6; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 72%.
Form
Sport Recife: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 11 matches unbeaten · at home
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Fortaleza EC: last five matches — D-W-W-W-W.
- 13 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · away
Table: Sport Recife — 8, Fortaleza EC — 4 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sport Recife at home and Fortaleza EC away, 2024–2026.
| Sport Recife | Fortaleza EC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 35 | 16 |
| Win rate | 57% | 38% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 25% |
| Both teams score | 69% | 31% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 54% | 53% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.1 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 69% | 44% |
Head to head
16 meetings in our database: Sport Recife won 2, 4 draws, Fortaleza EC won 10. Per match: 1.7 goals, 9.1 corners, 5.3 yellow cards.
- 28.06.2026: Fortaleza EC 2:1 Sport Recife
- 28.05.2026: Sport Recife 0:2 Fortaleza EC
- 21.05.2026: Fortaleza EC 1:2 Sport Recife
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model expects 10.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 60%.
How many yellow cards in Sport Recife vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.