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Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 21 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Guadalajara Chivas · Necaxa
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.2 corners in the match: Guadalajara Chivas 6.9, Necaxa 3.2. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Guadalajara Chivas 2.0, Necaxa 2.7; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 50% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 50%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Guadalajara Chivas win 72%, draw 18%, Necaxa win 11%. Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 46%.
Form
Guadalajara Chivas: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Necaxa: last five matches — W-D-D-L-D.
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Guadalajara Chivas — 4, Necaxa — 17 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Guadalajara Chivas at home and Necaxa away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Guadalajara Chivas | Necaxa | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 40 |
| Win rate | 53% | 20% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 70% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 10.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 40% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Guadalajara Chivas won 11, 6 draws, Necaxa won 3. Per match: 2.7 goals, 9.4 corners, 4.3 yellow cards.
- 23.04.2026: Necaxa 0:0 Guadalajara Chivas
- 24.09.2025: Guadalajara Chivas 3:1 Necaxa
- 18.01.2025: Necaxa 3:2 Guadalajara Chivas
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
Our model expects 10.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 50%.
Who is more likely to win Guadalajara Chivas vs Necaxa?
Our model: Guadalajara Chivas 72%, draw 18%, Necaxa 11%.