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Toluca vs Atletico San Luis: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.4 corners in the match: Toluca 5.3, Atletico San Luis 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 48%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Toluca 1.8, Atletico San Luis 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 53%.
Form
Toluca: last five matches — W-W-W-W-L.
- 4 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Atletico San Luis: last five matches — D-L-W-L-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Table: Toluca — 2, Atletico San Luis — 14 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Toluca at home and Atletico San Luis away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Toluca | Atletico San Luis | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 47 | 41 |
| Win rate | 68% | 29% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 66% |
| Both teams score | 66% | 61% |
| Total corners per match | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 43% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 38% | 22% |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Toluca won 9, 2 draws, Atletico San Luis won 2. Per match: 2.8 goals, 10.1 corners, 5.0 yellow cards.
- 13.04.2026: Toluca 1:1 Atletico San Luis
- 30.08.2025: Atletico San Luis 1:3 Toluca
- 17.04.2025: Atletico San Luis 0:1 Toluca
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Our model expects 9.4 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 47%.
How many yellow cards in Toluca vs Atletico San Luis?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.