Xpect
Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 17 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.0 corners in the match: Guadalajara Chivas 5.9, Tigres UANL 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 54% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 54%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Guadalajara Chivas 2.1, Tigres UANL 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 67%, typical match 66%.
Form
Guadalajara Chivas: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Tigres UANL: last five matches — L-L-D-D-L.
- 8 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · away
Table: Guadalajara Chivas — 4, Tigres UANL — 11 (of 18).
Team statistics for three seasons
Guadalajara Chivas at home and Tigres UANL away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Guadalajara Chivas | Tigres UANL | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 47 |
| Win rate | 53% | 28% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 49% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 51% |
| Total corners per match | 10.6 | 10.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 51% | 60% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 49% | 53% |
Head to head
29 meetings in our database: Guadalajara Chivas won 6, 9 draws, Tigres UANL won 14. Per match: 2.4 goals, 9.8 corners, 4.8 yellow cards.
- 10.05.2026: Guadalajara Chivas 2:0 Tigres UANL
- 03.05.2026: Tigres UANL 3:1 Guadalajara Chivas
- 11.04.2026: Tigres UANL 4:1 Guadalajara Chivas
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our model expects 10.0 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 54%.
How many yellow cards in Guadalajara Chivas vs Tigres UANL?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 48%.