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Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: prediction and statistics
Colombia · Primera A · 4 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.9 corners in the match: Independiente Medellin 5.3, Santa Fe 3.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.1. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 40% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Independiente Medellin 2.4, Santa Fe 2.2; typical match of the competition — 5.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 49% (typical match — 67%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 51%, typical match 33%.
Form
Independiente Medellin: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
Santa Fe: last five matches — D-D-L-W-D.
Table: Independiente Medellin — 9, Santa Fe — 5 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Independiente Medellin at home and Santa Fe away, 2024–2026.
| Independiente Medellin | Santa Fe | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 61 | 68 |
| Win rate | 51% | 40% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 35% |
| Both teams score | 51% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.4 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 59% | 72% |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Independiente Medellin won 5, 9 draws, Santa Fe won 10. Per match: 1.8 goals, 7.7 corners, 5.5 yellow cards.
- 23.03.2026: Santa Fe 2:1 Independiente Medellin
- 21.10.2025: Independiente Medellin 1:1 Santa Fe
- 29.06.2025: Independiente Medellin 1:2 Santa Fe
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Our model expects 8.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 40%.
How many yellow cards in Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 49%.