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Jubilo Iwata vs Omiya Ardija: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Jubilo Iwata · Omiya Ardija
Before kick-off
Jubilo Iwata host Omiya Ardija in J2 League on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Omiya Ardija are 1st of 20, Jubilo Iwata 10th — a gap of 9 places.
Jubilo Iwata have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Omiya Ardija: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 8 and 7.
The home record of Jubilo Iwata (2024–2026) is balanced: 14 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats in 27 matches, 1.4 scored and 1.1 conceded per game. On the road Omiya Ardija are a dangerous side — 13 wins, 7 draws and 8 defeats in 28 away matches, 1.7 scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
The 24 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Jubilo Iwata 9, Omiya Ardija 9, draws 6. Last time out (18 April 2026) it ended Omiya Ardija 1:2 Jubilo Iwata. On average these meetings produce 3.2 goals.
Form
Jubilo Iwata: last five matches — W-L-D-W-D.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 6 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
Omiya Ardija: last five matches — D-L-L-W-W.
- 9 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 5 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
Table: Jubilo Iwata — 10, Omiya Ardija — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Jubilo Iwata at home and Omiya Ardija away, 2024–2026.
| Jubilo Iwata | Omiya Ardija | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 28 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-5-8 | 13-7-8 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.1 |
Head to head
24 meetings in our database: Jubilo Iwata won 9, 6 draws, Omiya Ardija won 9. Per match: 3.2 goals.
- 18.04.2026: Omiya Ardija 1:2 Jubilo Iwata
- 21.03.2026: Jubilo Iwata 1:4 Omiya Ardija
- 27.09.2025: Jubilo Iwata 3:4 Omiya Ardija
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 41% of Jubilo Iwata home games and 57% of Omiya Ardija away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Jubilo Iwata 33%, draw 25%, Omiya Ardija 43%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Jubilo Iwata 1.7, Omiya Ardija 2.0; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 32% (typical match — 11%).
Result
Our model: Jubilo Iwata win 33%, draw 25%, Omiya Ardija win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 58%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Jubilo Iwata | Omiya Ardija | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 52% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 57% |
| Both teams score | 41% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.9 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 19% | 29% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 11.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.