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Sagan Tosu vs Vegalta Sendai: prediction and statistics
Japan · J2 League · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sagan Tosu · Vegalta Sendai
Before kick-off
J2 League, 21 November 2026: Sagan Tosu are at home to Vegalta Sendai. Vegalta Sendai sit 6th in the 20-team table while Sagan Tosu are 13th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
Recent results of Sagan Tosu are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games. Vegalta Sendai have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 9 against 9.
At home (2024–2026) Sagan Tosu have 14 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats in 27 matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Vegalta Sendai travel well: 22 wins, 14 draws and 12 defeats in 48 away matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 27 meetings — wins: Sagan Tosu 11, Vegalta Sendai 10; draws: 6. The most recent meeting, on 26 October 2025, finished Vegalta Sendai 3:2 Sagan Tosu. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Sagan Tosu: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
- 10 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
Vegalta Sendai: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
Table: Sagan Tosu — 13, Vegalta Sendai — 6 (of 20).
Home and away record
Sagan Tosu at home and Vegalta Sendai away, 2024–2026.
| Sagan Tosu | Vegalta Sendai | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 27 | 48 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 14-6-7 | 22-14-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.0 |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Sagan Tosu won 11, 6 draws, Vegalta Sendai won 10. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 26.10.2025: Vegalta Sendai 3:2 Sagan Tosu
- 15.02.2025: Sagan Tosu 0:1 Vegalta Sendai
- 29.08.2021: Vegalta Sendai 0:1 Sagan Tosu
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 32% – 25% – 43%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 52% of Sagan Tosu’s home matches and 40% of Vegalta Sendai’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.0 yellow cards: Sagan Tosu 1.4, Vegalta Sendai 1.6; typical match of the competition — 2.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 18% (typical match — 11%).
Result
Our model: Sagan Tosu win 32%, draw 25%, Vegalta Sendai win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 55%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Sagan Tosu | Vegalta Sendai | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 52% | 46% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 40% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 11% | 19% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.9 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 1.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.