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Kashiwa Reysol vs JEF United Chiba: prediction and statistics
Japan · J1 League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kashiwa Reysol · JEF United Chiba
Before kick-off
Kashiwa Reysol host JEF United Chiba in J1 League on 20 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Kashiwa Reysol are 2nd of 20, JEF United Chiba 17th — a gap of 15 places. Kashiwa Reysol are in the top three.
Kashiwa Reysol arrive in excellent form: 4 wins and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought JEF United Chiba no victory — 1 draw and 4 defeats. Counted in points, Kashiwa Reysol took 12 from that stretch and JEF United Chiba only 1.
The home record of Kashiwa Reysol (2025–2027) is balanced: 21 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats in 36 matches, 1.6 scored and 1.0 conceded per game. JEF United Chiba find it hard on the road: 1 win, 4 draws and 12 defeats in 17 away matches, 1.1 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per game.
The 9 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Kashiwa Reysol 5, JEF United Chiba 2, draws 2. Last time out (1 August 2026) it ended JEF United Chiba 0:0 Kashiwa Reysol. On average these meetings produce 2.6 goals.
Form
Kashiwa Reysol: last five matches — W-L-W-W-W.
- 12 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
JEF United Chiba: last five matches — L-L-L-L-D.
- 6 matches without a win · away
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Kashiwa Reysol — 2, JEF United Chiba — 17 (of 20).
Home and away record
Kashiwa Reysol at home and JEF United Chiba away, 2025–2027.
| Kashiwa Reysol | JEF United Chiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 17 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 21-5-10 | 1-4-12 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 2.1 |
Head to head
9 meetings in our database: Kashiwa Reysol won 5, 2 draws, JEF United Chiba won 2. Per match: 2.6 goals.
- 01.08.2026: JEF United Chiba 0:0 Kashiwa Reysol
- 23.05.2026: Kashiwa Reysol 4:2 JEF United Chiba
- 07.03.2026: JEF United Chiba 2:1 Kashiwa Reysol
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Kashiwa Reysol should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 3.5 for JEF United Chiba.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 47% of Kashiwa Reysol home games and 65% of JEF United Chiba away games.
- Our model makes Kashiwa Reysol the favourite at 75%; a draw is 16%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Kashiwa Reysol 6.0, JEF United Chiba 3.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards: Kashiwa Reysol 1.2, JEF United Chiba 1.6; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 15% (typical match — 14%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 85%, typical match 86%.
Result
Our model: Kashiwa Reysol win 75%, draw 16%, JEF United Chiba win 9%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 48%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kashiwa Reysol | JEF United Chiba | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 58% | 6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 65% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 65% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 24% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.1 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 6% | 29% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.6 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.