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Kashima vs Shimizu S-pulse: prediction and statistics
Japan · J1 League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kashima · Shimizu S-pulse
Before kick-off
J1 League, 20 November 2026: Kashima are at home to Shimizu S-pulse. Kashima sit 6th in the 20-team table while Shimizu S-pulse are 15th, so 9 places separate the two sides.
Few sides are in better shape than Kashima right now — 4 wins and 1 defeat from the last 5 games. Shimizu S-pulse have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 12 for Kashima against 6 for Shimizu S-pulse.
Kashima are hard to beat on their own ground — 27 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats in 36 home matches (2025–2027), with 1.8 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. The away record of Shimizu S-pulse: 9 wins, 8 draws and 18 defeats in 35 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded on average.
Head to head, Kashima have the upper hand: 19 wins in 28 meetings with Shimizu S-pulse in the Xpect database. The most recent meeting, on 31 August 2025, finished Shimizu S-pulse 1:1 Kashima. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
Kashima: last five matches — W-W-L-W-W.
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Shimizu S-pulse: last five matches — W-W-L-L-L.
- 6 matches without a win · all competitions
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: Kashima — 6, Shimizu S-pulse — 15 (of 20).
Home and away record
Kashima at home and Shimizu S-pulse away, 2025–2027.
| Kashima | Shimizu S-pulse | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 35 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 27-5-4 | 9-8-18 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.4 |
Head to head
28 meetings in our database: Kashima won 19, 4 draws, Shimizu S-pulse won 5. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 31.08.2025: Shimizu S-pulse 1:1 Kashima
- 17.05.2025: Kashima 1:0 Shimizu S-pulse
- 29.10.2022: Shimizu S-pulse 0:1 Kashima
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Kashima is the more likely winner in our model: 77%, draw 15%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 44% of Kashima’s home matches and 37% of Shimizu S-pulse’s away matches over three seasons.
- Head to head favours Kashima: 19 wins in 28 meetings with Shimizu S-pulse.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Kashima 5.1, Shimizu S-pulse 4.3. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 47% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 53%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.8 yellow cards: Kashima 1.3, Shimizu S-pulse 1.5; typical match of the competition — 2.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 16% (typical match — 14%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 84%, typical match 86%.
Result
Our model: Kashima win 77%, draw 15%, Shimizu S-pulse win 8%. Over 2.5 goals — 59%, both teams to score — 43%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kashima | Shimizu S-pulse | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 75% | 26% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 47% | 37% |
| Total corners per match | 9.3 | 9.8 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 43% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.0 | 2.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 20% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 9.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.3 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.