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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Esteghlal FC: prediction and statistics
Iran · Persian Gulf Pro League · 19 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Kheybar Khorramabad · Esteghlal FC
Before kick-off
Persian Gulf Pro League, 19 November 2026: Kheybar Khorramabad are at home to Esteghlal FC. Kheybar Khorramabad go into the match 10th of 18 in the table, Esteghlal FC are 5th.
An uneven run for Kheybar Khorramabad: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Esteghlal FC have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 7 against 6.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Kheybar Khorramabad have 13 wins, 11 draws and 9 defeats in 33 matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The away record of Esteghlal FC: 8 wins, 17 draws and 7 defeats in 32 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded on average. Both samples are low on goals: 2.2 per game in home matches of Kheybar Khorramabad and 1.8 in away matches of Esteghlal FC.
This fixture often ends level: 2 of the 3 meetings in the Xpect database were draws. The most recent meeting, on 15 December 2025, finished Kheybar Khorramabad 1:1 Esteghlal FC. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Kheybar Khorramabad: last five matches — L-W-D-W-L.
- 10 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Esteghlal FC: last five matches — D-W-D-L-D.
- 10 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Kheybar Khorramabad — 10, Esteghlal FC — 5 (of 18).
Home and away record
Kheybar Khorramabad at home and Esteghlal FC away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Kheybar Khorramabad | Esteghlal FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 33 | 32 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 13-11-9 | 8-17-7 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 0.9 |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Kheybar Khorramabad won 1, 2 draws, Esteghlal FC won 0. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 15.12.2025: Kheybar Khorramabad 1:1 Esteghlal FC
- 29.03.2025: Esteghlal FC 1:1 Kheybar Khorramabad
- 26.10.2024: Kheybar Khorramabad 3:1 Esteghlal FC
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 42% of Kheybar Khorramabad’s home matches and 31% of Esteghlal FC’s away matches over three seasons.
- Draws are common in this fixture: 2 of 3 meetings.
- No clear favourite in our model: 27% – 30% – 43%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Kheybar Khorramabad 2.0, Esteghlal FC 2.0; typical match of the competition — 3.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 36% (typical match — 28%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 55%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Kheybar Khorramabad win 27%, draw 30%, Esteghlal FC win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 33%, both teams to score — 40%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Kheybar Khorramabad | Esteghlal FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 39% | 25% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 31% |
| Both teams score | 55% | 53% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 28% | 25% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.