Xpect
Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Tractor Sazi: prediction and statistics
Iran · Persian Gulf Pro League · 19 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Mes Shahr-e Babak · Tractor Sazi
Before kick-off
Persian Gulf Pro League, 19 November 2026: Mes Shahr-e Babak are at home to Tractor Sazi. Tractor Sazi sit 3rd in the 18-team table while Mes Shahr-e Babak are 18th, so 15 places separate the two sides. Mes Shahr-e Babak are fighting at the wrong end of the table. Tractor Sazi are in the top three.
The last 5 games brought Mes Shahr-e Babak no victory — 2 draws and 3 defeats. Results have gone against Tractor Sazi recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
Mes Shahr-e Babak have not made their ground a fortress: 3 draws and 3 defeats in 6 home matches (2024/25–2026/27), 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game. Tractor Sazi travel well: 17 wins, 9 draws and 4 defeats in 30 away matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Mes Shahr-e Babak: last five matches — D-L-D-L-L.
- 12 matches without a win · all competitions
- 5 losses in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Tractor Sazi: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
Table: Mes Shahr-e Babak — 18, Tractor Sazi — 3 (of 18).
Home and away record
Mes Shahr-e Babak at home and Tractor Sazi away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Mes Shahr-e Babak | Tractor Sazi | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 30 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 0-3-3 | 17-9-4 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 0.5 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Tractor Sazi is the more likely winner in our model: 60%, draw 28%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 50% of Mes Shahr-e Babak’s home matches and 33% of Tractor Sazi’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Mes Shahr-e Babak 1.6, Tractor Sazi 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 25% (typical match — 28%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 57%, typical match 53%.
Result
Our model: Mes Shahr-e Babak win 13%, draw 28%, Tractor Sazi win 60%. Over 2.5 goals — 29%, both teams to score — 29%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Mes Shahr-e Babak | Tractor Sazi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 0% | 57% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 67% | 30% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 17% | 17% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.