Xpect
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 11 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.2 corners in the match: Lanus 5.3, Velez Sarsfield 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 44% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 56%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards: Lanus 2.3, Velez Sarsfield 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 51% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 69%, typical match 74%.
Form
Lanus: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
Velez Sarsfield: last five matches — W-D-D-D-D.
- 11 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Lanus — 12, Velez Sarsfield — 7 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Lanus at home and Velez Sarsfield away, 2024–2026.
| Lanus | Velez Sarsfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 45 | 43 |
| Win rate | 47% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 33% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 47% |
| Total corners per match | 8.5 | 8.9 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 33% | 37% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.9 | 4.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 51% |
Head to head
17 meetings in our database: Lanus won 6, 4 draws, Velez Sarsfield won 7. Per match: 2.3 goals, 8.9 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 21.03.2026: Velez Sarsfield 0:1 Lanus
- 31.08.2025: Velez Sarsfield 3:0 Lanus
- 22.05.2025: Lanus 2:0 Velez Sarsfield
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our model expects 9.2 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 44%.
How many yellow cards in Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our model expects 4.7 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 51%.