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Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 4 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.8 corners in the match: Sarmiento Junin 4.3, River Plate 4.5. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 39% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 61%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards: Sarmiento Junin 2.8, River Plate 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 60% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 60%, typical match 57%.
Form
Sarmiento Junin: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
River Plate: last five matches — L-L-D-W-W.
- 9 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Sarmiento Junin — 17, River Plate — 5 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sarmiento Junin at home and River Plate away, 2024–2026.
| Sarmiento Junin | River Plate | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 42 |
| Win rate | 35% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 29% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 36% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 8.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 38% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 55% |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Sarmiento Junin won 2, 2 draws, River Plate won 6. Per match: 2.8 goals, 12.0 corners, 4.1 yellow cards.
- 15.03.2026: River Plate 2:0 Sarmiento Junin
- 12.10.2025: River Plate 0:1 Sarmiento Junin
- 05.04.2025: Sarmiento Junin 1:1 River Plate
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
Our model expects 8.8 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 39%.
How many yellow cards in Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate?
Our model expects 5.2 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 60%.