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Liverpool vs Villarreal: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Liverpool · Villarreal
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.1 corners in the match: Liverpool 7.5, Villarreal 2.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 56% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 56%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Liverpool 1.5, Villarreal 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 29% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 52%, typical match 38%.
Result
Our model: Liverpool win 68%, draw 18%, Villarreal win 13%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 54%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Liverpool
All 13: 8W · 0D · 5L · goals 26:14
Home 7: 5W · 0D · 2L · goals 17:9
- 09.09.26 · UCL · Atletico Madrid (h) 2:1
- 14.04.26 · UCL · Paris Saint Germain (h) 0:2
- 08.04.26 · UCL · Paris Saint Germain (a) 0:2
- 18.03.26 · UCL · Galatasaray (h) 4:0
- 10.03.26 · UCL · Galatasaray (a) 0:1
League · Premier League 2026/27: 9 of 20 · 2W · 3D · 1L · goals 7:7. England — 1 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 103.8).
Villarreal
All 9: 0W · 1D · 8L · goals 7:21
Away 5: 0W · 0D · 5L · goals 2:12
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Borussia Dortmund (a) 2:3
- 28.01.26 · UCL · Bayer Leverkusen (a) 0:3
- 20.01.26 · UCL · Ajax (h) 1:2
- 10.12.25 · UCL · FC Copenhagen (h) 2:3
- 25.11.25 · UCL · Borussia Dortmund (a) 0:4
League · La Liga 2026/27: 11 of 20 · 2W · 2D · 4L · goals 13:13. Spain — 3 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 83.2).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Liverpool — 13 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played; Villarreal — 24 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
- 03.05.22 · UCL · Villarreal 2:3 Liverpool
- 27.04.22 · UCL · Liverpool 2:0 Villarreal
- 05.05.16 · UEL · Liverpool 3:0 Villarreal
- 28.04.16 · UEL · Villarreal 1:0 Liverpool
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Liverpool: last five matches — D-W-D-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Villarreal: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Liverpool at home and Villarreal away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Liverpool | Villarreal | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 5 |
| Win rate | 75% | 0% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.3 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 20% |
| Total corners per match | 10.0 | 7.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55% | 20% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.1 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 36% | 20% |
Head to head
4 meetings in our database: Liverpool won 3, 0 draws, Villarreal won 1. Per match: 2.8 goals, 9.8 corners, 3.5 yellow cards.
- 03.05.2022: Villarreal 2:3 Liverpool
- 27.04.2022: Liverpool 2:0 Villarreal
- 05.05.2016: Liverpool 3:0 Villarreal
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our model expects 10.1 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 56%.
How many yellow cards in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 29%.
Who is more likely to win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our model: Liverpool 68%, draw 18%, Villarreal 13%.