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Lokomotiv vs Pakhtakor: prediction and statistics
Uzbekistan · Super League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Lokomotiv · Pakhtakor
Before kick-off
Super League, 20 November 2026: Lokomotiv are at home to Pakhtakor. Lokomotiv go into the match 6th of 16 in the table, Pakhtakor are 2nd. Pakhtakor are in the top three.
An uneven run for Lokomotiv: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Pakhtakor have been solid lately: 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches. In points that is almost level: 7 against 8.
Lokomotiv have not made their ground a fortress: 8 wins, 7 draws and 11 defeats in 26 home matches (2024–2026), 1.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Pakhtakor travel well: 20 wins, 11 draws and 10 defeats in 41 away matches, with 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game.
Head to head there is no clear master over 27 meetings — wins: Lokomotiv 7, Pakhtakor 14; draws: 6. The most recent meeting, on 17 July 2026, finished Pakhtakor 1:1 Lokomotiv. On average these meetings produce 2.7 goals.
Form
Lokomotiv: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 13 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 3 matches without a win · at home
Pakhtakor: last five matches — D-W-D-L-W.
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · away
Table: Lokomotiv — 6, Pakhtakor — 2 (of 16).
Home and away record
Lokomotiv at home and Pakhtakor away, 2024–2026.
| Lokomotiv | Pakhtakor | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 26 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 8-7-11 | 20-11-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.1 |
Head to head
27 meetings in our database: Lokomotiv won 7, 6 draws, Pakhtakor won 14. Per match: 2.7 goals.
- 17.07.2026: Pakhtakor 1:1 Lokomotiv
- 18.08.2024: Pakhtakor 3:1 Lokomotiv
- 14.03.2024: Lokomotiv 3:0 Pakhtakor
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 39% – 25% – 36%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 54% of Lokomotiv’s home matches and 44% of Pakhtakor’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.4 yellow cards: Lokomotiv 1.6, Pakhtakor 1.8; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 26% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 55%, typical match 47%.
Result
Our model: Lokomotiv win 39%, draw 25%, Pakhtakor win 36%. Over 2.5 goals — 54%, both teams to score — 58%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Lokomotiv | Pakhtakor | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 31% | 49% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 44% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 49% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 4.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 12% | 46% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.1 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.