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Olmaliq vs Qizilqum: prediction and statistics
Uzbekistan · Super League · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Olmaliq · Qizilqum
Before kick-off
Super League, 20 November 2026: Olmaliq are at home to Qizilqum. Olmaliq go into the match 5th of 16 in the table, Qizilqum are 9th.
Recent results of Olmaliq are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Qizilqum have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024–2026) Olmaliq have 22 wins, 11 draws and 8 defeats in 41 matches, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. Trips have rarely paid off for Qizilqum — 7 wins, 12 draws and 22 defeats in 41 away matches, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.4 on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 32 meetings — wins: Olmaliq 15, Qizilqum 12; draws: 5. The most recent meeting, on 18 March 2026, finished Qizilqum 0:1 Olmaliq. On average these meetings produce 2.9 goals.
Form
Olmaliq: last five matches — L-W-D-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Qizilqum: last five matches — L-L-W-W-D.
- 5 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches without a win · all competitions
Table: Olmaliq — 5, Qizilqum — 9 (of 16).
Home and away record
Olmaliq at home and Qizilqum away, 2024–2026.
| Olmaliq | Qizilqum | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 41 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 22-11-8 | 7-12-22 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Olmaliq won 15, 5 draws, Qizilqum won 12. Per match: 2.9 goals.
- 18.03.2026: Qizilqum 0:1 Olmaliq
- 12.08.2025: Olmaliq 0:0 Qizilqum
- 28.03.2025: Qizilqum 1:3 Olmaliq
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Olmaliq is the more likely winner in our model: 57%, draw 24%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 54% of Olmaliq’s home matches and 37% of Qizilqum’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Olmaliq 1.7, Qizilqum 2.1; typical match of the competition — 3.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 34% (typical match — 34%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 66%, typical match 66%.
Result
Our model: Olmaliq win 57%, draw 24%, Qizilqum win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 50%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Olmaliq | Qizilqum | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 54% | 17% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 37% |
| Both teams score | 59% | 34% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.4 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 29% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 2.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.