Xpect
Mixco vs Malacateco: prediction and statistics
Guatemala · Liga Nacional · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Mixco · Malacateco
Before kick-off
Mixco host Malacateco in Liga Nacional on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Mixco are 3rd of 12, Malacateco 11th — a gap of 8 places. Mixco are in the top three. Malacateco are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Mixco arrive in excellent form: 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Malacateco no victory — 1 draw and 4 defeats. Counted in points, Mixco took 11 from that stretch and Malacateco only 1.
Home advantage matters here: Mixco have 34 wins, 15 draws and 6 defeats in 55 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 per game. Malacateco find it hard on the road: 6 wins, 10 draws and 37 defeats in 53 away matches, 0.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game.
The 18 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Mixco 9, Malacateco 7, draws 2. Last time out (21 September 2026) it ended Malacateco 1:0 Mixco. On average these meetings produce 2.4 goals.
Form
Mixco: last five matches — W-W-D-D-W.
- 12 matches unbeaten · at home
Malacateco: last five matches — L-L-D-L-L.
- 23 matches without a win · away
- 3 losses in a row · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Mixco — 3, Malacateco — 11 (of 12).
Home and away record
Mixco at home and Malacateco away, 2024–2026.
| Mixco | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 55 | 53 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 34-15-6 | 6-10-37 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 1.7 |
Head to head
18 meetings in our database: Mixco won 9, 2 draws, Malacateco won 7. Per match: 2.4 goals.
- 21.09.2026: Malacateco 1:0 Mixco
- 15.03.2026: Malacateco 1:2 Mixco
- 25.01.2026: Mixco 1:0 Malacateco
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 40% of Mixco home games and 43% of Malacateco away games.
- Our model makes Mixco the favourite at 67%; a draw is 21%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Mixco 2.4, Malacateco 2.4; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 78%.
Result
Our model: Mixco win 67%, draw 21%, Malacateco win 12%. Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 42%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Mixco | Malacateco | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 62% | 11% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 45% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.7 | 4.1 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 70% | 45% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 4.4 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.