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Xelajú vs Suchitepéquez: prediction and statistics
Guatemala · Liga Nacional · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Xelajú · Suchitepéquez
Before kick-off
Xelajú host Suchitepéquez in Liga Nacional on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Xelajú are 2nd of 12, Suchitepéquez 12th — a gap of 10 places. Xelajú are in the top three. Suchitepéquez are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Xelajú arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches. The last 5 games brought Suchitepéquez no victory — 5 defeats. Counted in points, Xelajú took 15 from that stretch and Suchitepéquez only 0.
Home advantage matters here: Xelajú have 39 wins, 12 draws and 5 defeats in 56 home matches (2024–2026), scoring 2.1 and conceding 0.7 per game. Suchitepéquez find it hard on the road: 10 defeats in 10 away matches, 0.6 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per game.
The 29 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Xelajú 8, Suchitepéquez 12, draws 9. Last time out (20 September 2026) it ended Suchitepéquez 2:2 Xelajú. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
Xelajú: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
Suchitepéquez: last five matches — L-L-L-L-L.
- 13 matches without a win · away
- 10 losses in a row · away
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Xelajú — 2, Suchitepéquez — 12 (of 12).
Home and away record
Xelajú at home and Suchitepéquez away, 2024–2026.
| Xelajú | Suchitepéquez | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 56 | 10 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 39-12-5 | 0-0-10 |
| Goals scored per match | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.7 | 2.7 |
Head to head
29 meetings in our database: Xelajú won 8, 9 draws, Suchitepéquez won 12. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 20.09.2026: Suchitepéquez 2:2 Xelajú
- 08.04.2018: Xelajú 4:3 Suchitepéquez
- 11.02.2018: Suchitepéquez 1:1 Xelajú
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 52% of Xelajú home games and 80% of Suchitepéquez away games.
- Our model makes Xelajú the favourite at 83%; a draw is 12%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.0 yellow cards: Xelajú 2.5, Suchitepéquez 2.5; typical match of the competition — 5.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 56% (typical match — 62%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 74%, typical match 78%.
Result
Our model: Xelajú win 83%, draw 12%, Suchitepéquez win 5%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 35%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Xelajú | Suchitepéquez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 70% | 0% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 80% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 40% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 5.2 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 57% | 70% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.