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Namungo vs Mbeya City: prediction and statistics
Tanzania · Ligi Kuu Bara · 20 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Namungo · Mbeya City
Before kick-off
Namungo host Mbeya City in Ligi Kuu Bara on 20 November 2026. In the standings Namungo are 7th and Mbeya City 11th out of 16 teams.
Namungo arrive in excellent form: 5 wins in the last 5 matches. Mbeya City are in a difficult spell: 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Counted in points, Namungo took 15 from that stretch and Mbeya City only 4.
The home record of Namungo (2024–2026) is balanced: 15 wins, 12 draws and 9 defeats in 36 matches, 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Away from home Mbeya City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 11 defeats in 21 matches, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.5 per game.
History favours Namungo — 6 wins from 10 meetings with Mbeya City. Last time out (21 May 2026) it ended Namungo 1:1 Mbeya City. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Namungo: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 5 wins in a row · at home
- 5 matches unbeaten · at home
Mbeya City: last five matches — W-D-L-L-L.
- 17 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 losses in a row · away
Table: Namungo — 7, Mbeya City — 11 (of 16).
Home and away record
Namungo at home and Mbeya City away, 2024–2026.
| Namungo | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 36 | 21 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 15-12-9 | 6-4-11 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
Head to head
10 meetings in our database: Namungo won 6, 2 draws, Mbeya City won 2. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 21.05.2026: Namungo 1:1 Mbeya City
- 30.11.2025: Mbeya City 0:1 Namungo
- 09.04.2023: Namungo 2:1 Mbeya City
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Namungo has won 6 of the last 10 meetings with Mbeya City.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 31% of Namungo home games and 38% of Mbeya City away games.
- Our model makes Namungo the favourite at 53%; a draw is 27%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 2.9 yellow cards: Namungo 1.5, Mbeya City 1.4; typical match of the competition — 3.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 17% (typical match — 19%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 66%, typical match 64%.
Result
Our model: Namungo win 53%, draw 27%, Mbeya City win 19%. Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 39%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Namungo | Mbeya City | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 42% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 31% | 38% |
| Both teams score | 36% | 29% |
| Total corners per match | 2.0 | 4.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 0% | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 7% | 0% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 0.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.