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Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Napoli · Bodo/Glimt
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Napoli 6.0, Bodo/Glimt 3.4. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: Napoli 1.9, Bodo/Glimt 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Napoli win 57%, draw 21%, Bodo/Glimt win 22%. Over 2.5 goals — 66%, both teams to score — 63%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Napoli
All 9: 2W · 2D · 5L · goals 9:16
Home 5: 2W · 1D · 2L · goals 6:5
- 09.09.26 · UCL · Arsenal (h) 0:1
- 28.01.26 · UCL · Chelsea (h) 2:3
- 20.01.26 · UCL · FC Copenhagen (a) 1:1
- 10.12.25 · UCL · Benfica (a) 0:2
- 25.11.25 · UCL · Qarabag (h) 2:0
League · Serie A 2026/27: 8 of 20 · 3W · 1D · 2L · goals 10:6. Italy — 2 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 88.6).
Bodo/Glimt
All 19: 9W · 4D · 6L · goals 40:35
Away 10: 3W · 3D · 4L · goals 16:25
- 10.09.26 · UCL · Bayern München (a) 0:5
- 25.08.26 · UCL · NEC Nijmegen (h) 3:0
- 19.08.26 · UCL · NEC Nijmegen (a) 3:1
- 11.08.26 · UCL · Union St. Gilloise (h) 3:2
- 04.08.26 · UCL · Union St. Gilloise (a) 3:3
League · Eliteserien 2026: 1 of 16 · 17W · 2D · 3L · goals 56:20. Norway — 13 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 38.6).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Napoli — 28 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played; Bodo/Glimt — 36 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Napoli: last five matches — W-L-L-W-W.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · at home
- 3 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Bodo/Glimt: last five matches — W-W-W-L-L.
- 14 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Napoli at home and Bodo/Glimt away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Napoli | Bodo/Glimt | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 5 | 13 |
| Win rate | 40% | 38% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 2.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 85% |
| Both teams score | 40% | 69% |
| Total corners per match | 7.6 | 12.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 20% | 73% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.6 | 3.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 23% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model: Napoli 57%, draw 21%, Bodo/Glimt 22%.