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Oriente Petrolero vs Independiente Petrolero: prediction and statistics
Bolivia · Primera División · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Oriente Petrolero · Independiente Petrolero
Before kick-off
Primera División, 21 November 2026: Oriente Petrolero are at home to Independiente Petrolero. Oriente Petrolero sit 4th in the 16-team table while Independiente Petrolero are 11th, so 7 places separate the two sides.
Few sides are in better shape than Oriente Petrolero right now — 4 wins and 1 draw from the last 5 games. Independiente Petrolero have blown hot and cold: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. On points from those games the gap is clear: 13 for Oriente Petrolero against 5 for Independiente Petrolero.
At home (2024–2026) Oriente Petrolero have 25 wins, 10 draws and 11 defeats in 46 matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.1 conceded. The away record of Independiente Petrolero: 13 wins, 10 draws and 25 defeats in 48 matches, with 1.3 goals scored and 2.1 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 13 meetings — wins: Oriente Petrolero 5, Independiente Petrolero 6; draws: 2. The most recent meeting, on 25 July 2026, finished Independiente Petrolero 1:2 Oriente Petrolero. On average these meetings produce 3.1 goals.
Form
Oriente Petrolero: last five matches — W-W-W-W-D.
- 8 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
Independiente Petrolero: last five matches — W-L-D-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
Table: Oriente Petrolero — 4, Independiente Petrolero — 11 (of 16).
Home and away record
Oriente Petrolero at home and Independiente Petrolero away, 2024–2026.
| Oriente Petrolero | Independiente Petrolero | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 46 | 48 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 25-10-11 | 13-10-25 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 2.1 |
Head to head
13 meetings in our database: Oriente Petrolero won 5, 2 draws, Independiente Petrolero won 6. Per match: 3.1 goals.
- 25.07.2026: Independiente Petrolero 1:2 Oriente Petrolero
- 23.09.2025: Oriente Petrolero 2:1 Independiente Petrolero
- 27.07.2025: Independiente Petrolero 1:0 Oriente Petrolero
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 61% of Oriente Petrolero’s home matches and 77% of Independiente Petrolero’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Oriente Petrolero: 6.0 against 3.1 for Independiente Petrolero.
- Oriente Petrolero is the more likely winner in our model: 58%, draw 21%.
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.1 corners in the match: Oriente Petrolero 6.0, Independiente Petrolero 3.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 42% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.7 yellow cards: Oriente Petrolero 2.5, Independiente Petrolero 3.1; typical match of the competition — 6.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 67% (typical match — 71%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 82%, typical match 84%.
Result
Our model: Oriente Petrolero win 58%, draw 21%, Independiente Petrolero win 20%. Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 58%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Oriente Petrolero | Independiente Petrolero | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 54% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 77% |
| Both teams score | 54% | 71% |
| Total corners per match | 9.0 | 9.2 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 39% | 46% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 6.3 | 6.0 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 63% | 68% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 6.8 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.