Xpect
Ostia Mare vs Atalanta II: prediction and statistics
Italy · Serie C – Girone B · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ostia Mare · Atalanta II
Before kick-off
Ostia Mare host Atalanta II in Serie C – Girone B on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Atalanta II are 11th of 20, Ostia Mare 19th — a gap of 8 places. Ostia Mare are in the bottom three.
Ostia Mare are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Atalanta II: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home matches have been a struggle for Ostia Mare (2024/25–2026/27) — 2 draws and 4 defeats in 6 games, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.7 on average. Atalanta II find it hard on the road: 2 wins and 5 defeats in 7 away matches, 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Ostia Mare: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.
- 8 matches without a win · at home
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 losses in a row · all competitions
Atalanta II: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 4 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Ostia Mare — 19, Atalanta II — 11 (of 20).
Home and away record
Ostia Mare at home and Atalanta II away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Ostia Mare | Atalanta II | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 6 | 7 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 0-2-4 | 2-0-5 |
| Goals scored per match | 0.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Ostia Mare home games and 43% of Atalanta II away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Ostia Mare 30%, draw 26%, Atalanta II 44%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.7 yellow cards: Ostia Mare 1.9, Atalanta II 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 31% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 69%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: Ostia Mare win 30%, draw 26%, Atalanta II win 44%. Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 53%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ostia Mare | Atalanta II | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 0% | 29% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 2.5 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 0% | 43% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.