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Palmeiras vs Fluminense: prediction and statistics
South America · Copa Libertadores · 22 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Palmeiras · Fluminense
Key facts
- Palmeiras should win the corner count: 6.9 expected against 3.0 for Fluminense.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 50% of Palmeiras home games and 20% of Fluminense away games.
- Our model makes Palmeiras the favourite at 61%; a draw is 23%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Palmeiras 6.9, Fluminense 3.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.2. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 45%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 45%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Palmeiras 2.1, Fluminense 3.2; typical match of the competition — 5.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 61% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 61%, typical match 58%.
Result
Our model: Palmeiras win 61%, draw 23%, Fluminense win 16%. Over 2.5 goals — 49%, both teams to score — 47%.
Form
Palmeiras: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 9 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
- 6 wins in a row · at home
Fluminense: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Palmeiras at home and Fluminense away, 2024–2026.
| Palmeiras | Fluminense | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 10 |
| Win rate | 63% | 10% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.6 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams score | 44% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 8.9 | 7.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 50% | 40% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.7 | 5.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 56% | 80% |
Head to head
32 meetings in our database: Palmeiras won 13, 5 draws, Fluminense won 14. Per match: 2.3 goals, 9.5 corners, 5.4 yellow cards.
- 15.08.2026: Fluminense 3:2 Palmeiras
- 26.02.2026: Palmeiras 2:1 Fluminense
- 23.11.2025: Palmeiras 0:0 Fluminense
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 61%.
Who is more likely to win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our model: Palmeiras 61%, draw 23%, Fluminense 16%.