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Ponferradina vs Extremadura 1924: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ponferradina · Extremadura 1924
Before kick-off
Ponferradina host Extremadura 1924 in Primera Federación – Grupo 1 on 21 November 2026. In the standings Ponferradina are 14th and Extremadura 1924 9th out of 20 teams.
Ponferradina have blown hot and cold: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Extremadura 1924 are mostly positive — 3 wins and 2 defeats from 5 games.
The home record of Ponferradina (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 24 wins, 7 draws and 13 defeats in 44 matches, 1.5 scored and 0.9 conceded per game. On the road Extremadura 1924 are a dangerous side — 3 wins and 3 defeats in 6 away matches, 2.5 scored and 1.8 conceded per game.
There are no previous meetings between the two sides in the Xpect database.
Form
Ponferradina: last five matches — W-W-L-D-L.
- 7 matches without a win · all competitions
Extremadura 1924: last five matches — L-W-W-W-L.
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Ponferradina — 14, Extremadura 1924 — 9 (of 20).
Home and away record
Ponferradina at home and Extremadura 1924 away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Ponferradina | Extremadura 1924 | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 44 | 6 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 24-7-13 | 3-0-3 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.8 |
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 41% of Ponferradina home games and 83% of Extremadura 1924 away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Ponferradina 37%, draw 28%, Extremadura 1924 35%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.7 yellow cards: Ponferradina 2.9, Extremadura 1924 2.8; typical match of the competition — 4.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 67% (typical match — 53%).
Result
Our model: Ponferradina win 37%, draw 28%, Extremadura 1924 win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 48%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ponferradina | Extremadura 1924 | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 55% | 50% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 83% |
| Both teams score | 43% | 67% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 55% | 83% |
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.