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Pontevedra vs Lugo: prediction and statistics
Spain · Primera Federación – Grupo 1 · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Pontevedra · Lugo
Before kick-off
Primera Federación – Grupo 1, 21 November 2026: Pontevedra are at home to Lugo. Pontevedra go into the match 4th of 20 in the table, Lugo are 1st.
An uneven run for Pontevedra: 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Lugo have been solid lately: 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in the last 5 matches.
At home (2024/25–2026/27) Pontevedra have 10 wins, 12 draws and 3 defeats in 25 matches, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. The away record of Lugo: 13 wins, 14 draws and 17 defeats in 44 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 3 meetings — wins: Pontevedra 1, Lugo 1; draws: 1. The most recent meeting, on 21 February 2026, finished Pontevedra 1:1 Lugo. On average these meetings produce 1.3 goals.
Form
Pontevedra: last five matches — L-D-L-W-W.
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Lugo: last five matches — D-W-W-L-W.
Table: Pontevedra — 4, Lugo — 1 (of 20).
Home and away record
Pontevedra at home and Lugo away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Pontevedra | Lugo | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 25 | 44 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 10-12-3 | 13-14-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 1.2 |
Head to head
3 meetings in our database: Pontevedra won 1, 1 draws, Lugo won 1. Per match: 1.3 goals.
- 21.02.2026: Pontevedra 1:1 Lugo
- 22.11.2025: Lugo 1:0 Pontevedra
- 17.08.2024: Pontevedra 1:0 Lugo
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- No clear favourite in our model: 41% – 28% – 31%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 40% of Pontevedra’s home matches and 36% of Lugo’s away matches over three seasons.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.4 yellow cards: Pontevedra 2.3, Lugo 3.1; typical match of the competition — 4.8. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 63% (typical match — 53%).
Result
Our model: Pontevedra win 41%, draw 28%, Lugo win 31%. Over 2.5 goals — 42%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Pontevedra | Lugo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 40% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 36% |
| Both teams score | 64% | 48% |
| Total corners per match | — | 7.0 |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | 0% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.5 | 5.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 60% | 61% |
Head to head
Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.