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Ponte Preta vs Operario-PR: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 12 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Ponte Preta · Operario-PR
Before kick-off
Serie B, 12 November 2026: Ponte Preta are at home to Operario-PR. Operario-PR sit 10th in the 20-team table while Ponte Preta are 20th, so 10 places separate the two sides. Ponte Preta are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
An uneven run for Ponte Preta: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games. Results have gone against Operario-PR recently — 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. In points that is almost level: 5 against 4.
Ponte Preta have not made their ground a fortress: 11 wins, 8 draws and 18 defeats in 37 home matches (2024–2026), 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The away record of Operario-PR: 15 wins, 14 draws and 27 defeats in 56 matches, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded on average.
Head to head there is no clear master over 11 meetings — wins: Ponte Preta 3, Operario-PR 5; draws: 3. The most recent meeting, on 22 July 2026, finished Operario-PR 3:2 Ponte Preta. On average these meetings produce 2.1 goals.
Form
Ponte Preta: last five matches — L-W-L-D-D.
- 8 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 8 matches without a win · all competitions
- 7 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
Operario-PR: last five matches — D-W-L-L-L.
- 4 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · all competitions
- 3 losses in a row · away
- 3 matches without a win · away
Table: Ponte Preta — 20, Operario-PR — 10 (of 20).
Home and away record
Ponte Preta at home and Operario-PR away, 2024–2026.
| Ponte Preta | Operario-PR | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 37 | 56 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 11-8-18 | 15-14-27 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.3 |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Ponte Preta won 3, 3 draws, Operario-PR won 5. Per match: 2.1 goals.
- 22.07.2026: Operario-PR 3:2 Ponte Preta
- 24.08.2024: Ponte Preta 0:1 Operario-PR
- 11.05.2024: Operario-PR 1:1 Ponte Preta
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Operario-PR is the more likely winner in our model: 60%, draw 22%.
- Over 2.5 goals happened in 38% of Ponte Preta’s home matches and 45% of Operario-PR’s away matches over three seasons.
- Our model expects more corners from Operario-PR: 5.7 against 4.7 for Ponte Preta.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: Ponte Preta 4.7, Operario-PR 5.7. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 60% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 60%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.3 yellow cards: Ponte Preta 2.8, Operario-PR 2.5; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 62% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 62%, typical match 54%.
Result
Our model: Ponte Preta win 18%, draw 22%, Operario-PR win 60%. Over 2.5 goals — 52%, both teams to score — 51%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Ponte Preta | Operario-PR | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 30% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 45% |
| Both teams score | 49% | 43% |
| Total corners per match | 10.4 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 70% | 45% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.2 | 5.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 68% | 68% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 5.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.