Xpect
São Bernardo vs Athletic Club: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 12 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: São Bernardo · Athletic Club
Before kick-off
São Bernardo host Athletic Club in Serie B on 12 November 2026. In the standings São Bernardo are 11th and Athletic Club 14th out of 20 teams.
São Bernardo have been solid lately: 3 wins and 2 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for Athletic Club: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats from the last 5 games.
Home matches have been a struggle for São Bernardo (2024–2026) — 5 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats in 18 games, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 on average. Away from home Athletic Club have 10 wins, 11 draws and 16 defeats in 37 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.3 per game.
The sides have rarely met: the Xpect database holds 2 meetings between them. Last time out (23 July 2026) it ended Athletic Club 2:1 São Bernardo.
Form
São Bernardo: last five matches — L-W-W-L-W.
- 8 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Athletic Club: last five matches — W-D-L-D-L.
- 4 matches without a win · away
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · away
Table: São Bernardo — 11, Athletic Club — 14 (of 20).
Home and away record
São Bernardo at home and Athletic Club away, 2024–2026.
| São Bernardo | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 18 | 37 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 5-6-7 | 10-11-16 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: São Bernardo won 1, 0 draws, Athletic Club won 1. Per match: 4.0 goals.
- 23.07.2026: Athletic Club 2:1 São Bernardo
- 29.06.2024: Athletic Club 1:4 São Bernardo
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- São Bernardo should win the corner count: 6.5 expected against 3.9 for Athletic Club.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 39% of São Bernardo home games and 46% of Athletic Club away games.
- Our model makes São Bernardo the favourite at 55%; a draw is 25%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.4 corners in the match: São Bernardo 6.5, Athletic Club 3.9. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 59% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 59%, typical match 58%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.0 yellow cards: São Bernardo 2.0, Athletic Club 2.0; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 37% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 63%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: São Bernardo win 55%, draw 25%, Athletic Club win 21%. Over 2.5 goals — 45%, both teams to score — 47%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| São Bernardo | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 28% | 27% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39% | 46% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 54% |
| Total corners per match | 11.3 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 71% | 57% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 4.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 33% | 60% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.0 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.5 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.