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Puebla vs Atletico San Luis: prediction and statistics
Mexico · Liga MX · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Puebla · Atletico San Luis
Before kick-off
Puebla host Atletico San Luis in Liga MX on 21 November 2026. Very little separates them in the standings — Puebla are 13th, Atletico San Luis 14th in a table of 18.
Puebla are still looking for a win: 2 draws and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. Recent results of Atletico San Luis are mostly positive — 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat from 5 games. Counted in points, Atletico San Luis took 10 from that stretch and Puebla only 2.
Home matches have been a struggle for Puebla (2024/25–2026/27) — 9 wins, 9 draws and 23 defeats in 41 games, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.7 on average. Away from home Atletico San Luis have 13 wins, 7 draws and 23 defeats in 43 matches, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 per game.
The 14 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Puebla 4, Atletico San Luis 8, draws 2. Last time out (28 February 2026) it ended Atletico San Luis 0:1 Puebla. On average these meetings produce 2.5 goals.
Form
Puebla: last five matches — L-D-D-L-L.
- 7 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 6 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
- 5 matches without a win · at home
Atletico San Luis: last five matches — W-L-W-D-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · all competitions
Table: Puebla — 13, Atletico San Luis — 14 (of 18).
Home and away record
Puebla at home and Atletico San Luis away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Puebla | Atletico San Luis | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 43 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 9-9-23 | 13-7-23 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.7 | 1.8 |
Head to head
14 meetings in our database: Puebla won 4, 2 draws, Atletico San Luis won 8. Per match: 2.5 goals.
- 28.02.2026: Atletico San Luis 0:1 Puebla
- 16.08.2025: Puebla 0:2 Atletico San Luis
- 18.01.2025: Puebla 1:2 Atletico San Luis
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 59% of Puebla home games and 63% of Atletico San Luis away games.
- Our model sees an open game: Puebla 38%, draw 25%, Atletico San Luis 37%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Puebla 5.0, Atletico San Luis 5.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.5 yellow cards: Puebla 1.8, Atletico San Luis 1.7; typical match of the competition — 4.5. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 27% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 54%, typical match 34%.
Result
Our model: Puebla win 38%, draw 25%, Atletico San Luis win 37%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 60%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Puebla | Atletico San Luis | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 22% | 30% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 63% |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% |
| Total corners per match | 10.5 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 63% | 42% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.7 | 3.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 37% | 21% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 10.5 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.9 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.