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Puskas Academy vs MTK Budapest: prediction and statistics
Hungary · NB I · 21 November 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Puskas Academy · MTK Budapest
Before kick-off
Puskas Academy host MTK Budapest in NB I on 21 November 2026. In the table there is clear daylight between them: Puskas Academy are 1st of 12, MTK Budapest 10th — a gap of 9 places. MTK Budapest are fighting at the wrong end of the table.
Puskas Academy have blown hot and cold: 2 wins and 3 defeats in the last 5 matches. An uneven run for MTK Budapest: 2 wins and 3 defeats from the last 5 games. Measured in points the two runs are close — 6 and 6.
The home record of Puskas Academy (2024/25–2026/27) is balanced: 19 wins, 7 draws and 12 defeats in 38 matches, 1.7 scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Away from home MTK Budapest have 7 wins, 15 draws and 17 defeats in 39 matches, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.9 per game. Goals are rarely in short supply in these samples: 3.1 per game in home matches of Puskas Academy and 3.0 in away matches of MTK Budapest.
The 26 previous meetings are fairly balanced — Puskas Academy 11, MTK Budapest 9, draws 6. Last time out (7 August 2026) it ended MTK Budapest 2:3 Puskas Academy. On average these meetings produce 2.8 goals.
Form
Puskas Academy: last five matches — W-L-W-L-L.
- 5 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
- 5 matches in a row both teams scored · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · at home
MTK Budapest: last five matches — W-L-L-W-L.
- 5 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · away
Table: Puskas Academy — 1, MTK Budapest — 10 (of 12).
Home and away record
Puskas Academy at home and MTK Budapest away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Puskas Academy | MTK Budapest | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 39 |
| Wins · draws · losses | 19-7-12 | 7-15-17 |
| Goals scored per match | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
Head to head
26 meetings in our database: Puskas Academy won 11, 6 draws, MTK Budapest won 9. Per match: 2.8 goals.
- 07.08.2026: MTK Budapest 2:3 Puskas Academy
- 15.05.2026: Puskas Academy 2:2 MTK Budapest
- 14.02.2026: MTK Budapest 2:2 Puskas Academy
🔒 Full statistics for this match — with an Xpect subscription
Corners, cards and goals by line, model estimates, team stats and referee open in the Xpect app and web version.
Key facts
- Puskas Academy should win the corner count: 6.0 expected against 3.8 for MTK Budapest.
- Three-season trend: over 2.5 goals in 63% of Puskas Academy home games and 59% of MTK Budapest away games.
- Our model makes Puskas Academy the favourite at 63%; a draw is 20%.
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.8 corners in the match: Puskas Academy 6.0, MTK Budapest 3.8. In a typical match of this competition — 9.8. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 52% (typical match — 52%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 52%, typical match 52%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.6 yellow cards: Puskas Academy 2.2, MTK Budapest 2.4; typical match of the competition — 4.7. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 48% (typical match — 50%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 52%, typical match 50%.
Result
Our model: Puskas Academy win 63%, draw 20%, MTK Budapest win 17%. Over 2.5 goals — 62%, both teams to score — 57%.
Team statistics for three seasons
| Puskas Academy | MTK Budapest | |
|---|---|---|
| Win rate | 50% | 18% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 59% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 59% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 10.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 52% | 65% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.1 | 3.9 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 33% |
Head to head
Corners in their meetings: 8.4 per match on average. Yellow cards in their meetings: 3.7 per match on average.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.