Xpect
Racing Club vs Independiente: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.3 corners in the match: Racing Club 5.2, Independiente 4.1. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 46% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 54%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Racing Club 2.2, Independiente 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 52% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 74%.
Result
Our model: Racing Club win 46%, draw 26%, Independiente win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 53%.
Form
Racing Club: last five matches — W-D-L-W-L.
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
- 6 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · all competitions
Independiente: last five matches — L-L-W-W-W.
- 3 wins in a row · away
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Table: Racing Club — 18, Independiente — 14 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Racing Club at home and Independiente away, 2024–2026.
| Racing Club | Independiente | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 46 | 44 |
| Win rate | 48% | 27% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | 27% |
| Both teams score | 46% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 9.1 | 8.5 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 48% | 41% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 59% | 68% |
Head to head
20 meetings in our database: Racing Club won 9, 4 draws, Independiente won 7. Per match: 1.7 goals, 8.7 corners, 6.8 yellow cards.
- 04.04.2026: Independiente 1:0 Racing Club
- 28.09.2025: Racing Club 0:0 Independiente
- 16.03.2025: Independiente 1:1 Racing Club
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Racing Club vs Independiente?
Our model expects 9.3 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 46%.
How many yellow cards in Racing Club vs Independiente?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 52%.
Who is more likely to win Racing Club vs Independiente?
Our model: Racing Club 46%, draw 26%, Independiente 29%.