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Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club: prediction and statistics
Spain · La Liga · 10 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 9.9 corners in the match: Rayo Vallecano 5.3, Athletic Club 4.6. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 53% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 9.5 — 53%, typical match 49%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards: Rayo Vallecano 2.2, Athletic Club 2.6; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 53% (typical match — 56%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 3.5 — 71%, typical match 73%.
Result
Market line without margin: Rayo Vallecano win 32%, draw 27%, Athletic Club win 41%. Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 55%.
Form
Rayo Vallecano: last five matches — D-W-D-W-W.
- 10 matches unbeaten · at home
- 7 matches in a row both teams scored · all competitions
Athletic Club: last five matches — L-L-L-L-W.
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Rayo Vallecano — 12, Athletic Club — 10 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
Rayo Vallecano at home and Athletic Club away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Rayo Vallecano | Athletic Club | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 41 | 40 |
| Win rate | 37% | 33% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 43% |
| Both teams score | 63% | 50% |
| Total corners per match | 10.8 | 9.7 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 66% | 55% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.4 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 46% | 40% |
Head to head
36 meetings in our database: Rayo Vallecano won 5, 10 draws, Athletic Club won 21. Per match: 2.9 goals, 10.1 corners, 4.2 yellow cards.
- 28.02.2026: Rayo Vallecano 1:1 Athletic Club
- 25.08.2025: Athletic Club 1:0 Rayo Vallecano
- 13.04.2025: Athletic Club 3:1 Rayo Vallecano
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 9.9 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 53%.
How many yellow cards in Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Our model expects 4.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 53%.
Who is more likely to win Rayo Vallecano vs Athletic Club?
Market line without margin: Rayo Vallecano 32%, draw 27%, Athletic Club 41%.