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Rops vs SalPa: prediction and statistics
Finland · Ykkönen · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards: Rops 1.9, SalPa 1.9; typical match of the competition — 4.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 35% (typical match — 40%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 65%, typical match 60%.
Result
Market line without margin: Rops win 42%, draw 23%, SalPa win 35%. Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 71%.
Form
Rops: last five matches — W-D-W-W-D.
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
SalPa: last five matches — W-W-L-D-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · away
- 4 wins in a row · all competitions
- 4 matches unbeaten · all competitions
Table: Rops — 3, SalPa — 2 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
Rops at home and SalPa away, 2024–2026.
| Rops | SalPa | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 38 | 11 |
| Win rate | 53% | 36% |
| Goals scored per match | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 64% |
| Both teams score | 71% | 64% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.6 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 32% | 36% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: Rops won 0, 2 draws, SalPa won 0. Per match: 3.0 goals, 4.5 yellow cards.
- 27.06.2026: Rops 2:2 SalPa
- 04.04.2026: SalPa 1:1 Rops
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in Rops vs SalPa?
Our model expects 3.9 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 35%.
Who is more likely to win Rops vs SalPa?
Market line without margin: Rops 42%, draw 23%, SalPa 35%.