Xpect
TPV vs FC jazz: prediction and statistics
Finland · Ykkönen · 26 September 2026 · kick-off
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards: TPV 2.0, FC jazz 1.8; typical match of the competition — 4.1. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 33% (typical match — 40%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 67%, typical match 60%.
Result
Market line without margin: TPV win 34%, draw 23%, FC jazz win 43%. Over 2.5 goals — 70%, both teams to score — 69%.
Form
TPV: last five matches — W-W-D-L-W.
FC jazz: last five matches — L-W-D-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: TPV — 9, FC jazz — 7 (of 12).
Team statistics for three seasons
TPV at home and FC jazz away, 2024–2026.
| TPV | FC jazz | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 12 | 38 |
| Win rate | 42% | 39% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 71% |
| Both teams score | 58% | 66% |
| Total corners per match | — | — |
| Over 9.5 corners | — | — |
| Total yellow cards per match | 3.8 | 3.8 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 34% |
Head to head
2 meetings in our database: TPV won 0, 0 draws, FC jazz won 2. Per match: 3.0 goals, 1.5 yellow cards.
- 24.07.2026: FC jazz 4:0 TPV
- 02.05.2026: TPV 0:2 FC jazz
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: market line with the margin removed. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many yellow cards in TPV vs FC jazz?
Our model expects 3.8 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 33%.
Who is more likely to win TPV vs FC jazz?
Market line without margin: TPV 34%, draw 23%, FC jazz 43%.