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Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and statistics
Europe · Champions League · 20 October 2026 · kick-off
Team stats: Sabah FK · Borussia Dortmund
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 9.5 corners in the match: Sabah FK 3.6, Borussia Dortmund 5.9. In a typical match of this competition — 9.6. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 48% (typical match — 49%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 52%, typical match 51%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards: Sabah FK 1.5, Borussia Dortmund 2.1; typical match of the competition — 4.3. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 30% (typical match — 43%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 3.5 — 51%, typical match 38%.
Result
Our model: Sabah FK win 18%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund win 60%. Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 54%.
European cups
Seasons 2025/26 and 2026/27 — the new format
Sabah FK
All 15: 8W · 1D · 6L · goals 29:21
Home 7: 5W · 0D · 2L · goals 18:8
- 10.09.26 · UCL · Manchester United (a) 0:4
- 25.08.26 · UCL · Hapoel Beer Sheva (h) 5:2
- 19.08.26 · UCL · Hapoel Beer Sheva (a) 1:2
- 11.08.26 · UCL · Aarhus (h) 4:0
- 05.08.26 · UCL · Aarhus (a) 1:2
League · Premier League 2026/27: 2 of 12 · 5W · 1D · 0L · goals 14:1. Azerbaijan — 25 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 23.7).
Borussia Dortmund
All 11: 5W · 2D · 4L · goals 25:23
Away 5: 1W · 1D · 3L · goals 10:16
- 08.09.26 · UCL · Villarreal (h) 3:2
- 25.02.26 · UCL · Atalanta (a) 1:4
- 17.02.26 · UCL · Atalanta (h) 2:0
- 28.01.26 · UCL · Inter (h) 0:2
- 20.01.26 · UCL · Tottenham (a) 0:2
League · Bundesliga 2026/27: 2 of 18 · 4W · 1D · 0L · goals 11:4. Germany — 4 in the UEFA country ranking (coefficient 81.5).
UCL: league phase 2026/27: Sabah FK — 34 of 36 · 0 pts · 1 played; Borussia Dortmund — 11 of 36 · 3 pts · 1 played.
Head to head in Europe
They have not met in Europe before.
Champions League, Europa League and Conference League, qualifiers included — the two seasons of the new format. Corners and cards from matches where they are recorded.
Form
Sabah FK: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 7 wins in a row · at home
- 7 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 2.5 goals · at home
Borussia Dortmund: last five matches — W-W-W-W-W.
- 7 matches unbeaten · all competitions
- 5 wins in a row · away
Team statistics for three seasons
Sabah FK at home and Borussia Dortmund away, 2024/25–2026/27.
| Sabah FK | Borussia Dortmund | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 4 | 12 |
| Win rate | 100% | 42% |
| Goals scored per match | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.5 | 2.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 92% |
| Both teams score | 25% | 58% |
| Total corners per match | 12.5 | 9.3 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 100% | 50% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.8 | 3.3 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 50% | 25% |
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own model — who is stronger comes from an attack and defence rating adjusted for the strength of the opponents (wins over weak sides count for less, so a promoted team gets no extra credit), how many goals from the last 30 matches of each team, Poisson distribution; tested the same way on 445,384 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model expects 9.5 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 48%.
How many yellow cards in Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model expects 3.6 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 30%.
Who is more likely to win Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model: Sabah FK 18%, draw 21%, Borussia Dortmund 60%.