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São Bernardo vs Criciuma: prediction and statistics
Brazil · Serie B · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners over 9.5
Our model expects 10.7 corners in the match: São Bernardo 5.5, Criciuma 5.2. In a typical match of this competition — 10.3. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 63% (typical match — 58%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners over 10.5 — 51%, typical match 46%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards under 4.5
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards: São Bernardo 2.1, Criciuma 2.3; typical match of the competition — 4.9. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 46% (typical match — 54%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards under 4.5 — 54%, typical match 46%.
Result
Our model: São Bernardo win 48%, draw 28%, Criciuma win 24%. Over 2.5 goals — 38%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
São Bernardo: last five matches — L-D-L-W-W.
- 6 matches in a row under 4.5 yellow cards · at home
- 4 matches in a row over 9.5 corners · all competitions
Criciuma: last five matches — D-L-L-W-L.
- 7 matches in a row without both teams scoring · all competitions
Table: São Bernardo — 11, Criciuma — 5 (of 20).
Team statistics for three seasons
São Bernardo at home and Criciuma away, 2024–2026.
| São Bernardo | Criciuma | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 16 | 35 |
| Win rate | 25% | 31% |
| Goals scored per match | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded per match | 1.1 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 23% |
| Both teams score | 56% | 46% |
| Total corners per match | 11.6 | 9.6 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 73% | 51% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 4.0 | 4.5 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 40% | 49% |
Head to head
1 meetings in our database: São Bernardo won 0, 0 draws, Criciuma won 1. Per match: 1.0 goals, 9.0 corners, 7.0 yellow cards.
- 27.06.2026: Criciuma 1:0 São Bernardo
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
Our model expects 10.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 63%.
How many yellow cards in São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
Our model expects 4.5 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 46%.
Who is more likely to win São Bernardo vs Criciuma?
Our model: São Bernardo 48%, draw 28%, Criciuma 24%.