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Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central: prediction and statistics
Argentina · Liga Profesional · 18 October 2026 · kick-off
Corners
Corners under 9.5
Our model expects 8.7 corners in the match: Sarmiento Junin 4.7, Barracas Central 4.0. In a typical match of this competition — 9.4. Probability of over 9.5 corners: 38% (typical match — 47%).
This match is in the top of the day: Corners under 9.5 — 62%, typical match 53%.
Yellow cards
Yellow cards over 4.5
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards: Sarmiento Junin 2.4, Barracas Central 2.7; typical match of the competition — 5.0. Probability of over 4.5 cards: 58% (typical match — 57%).
This match is in the top of the day: Yellow cards over 4.5 — 58%, typical match 57%.
Result
Our model: Sarmiento Junin win 42%, draw 29%, Barracas Central win 29%. Over 2.5 goals — 37%, both teams to score — 43%.
Form
Sarmiento Junin: last five matches — L-W-W-W-D.
- 4 matches unbeaten · at home
- 3 matches in a row under 2.5 goals · at home
- 3 matches in a row over 4.5 yellow cards · at home
Barracas Central: last five matches — L-L-D-D-W.
- 3 matches unbeaten · away
- 3 matches in a row under 9.5 corners · away
Table: Sarmiento Junin — 16, Barracas Central — 15 (of 30).
Team statistics for three seasons
Sarmiento Junin at home and Barracas Central away, 2024–2026.
| Sarmiento Junin | Barracas Central | |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 46 |
| Win rate | 35% | 30% |
| Goals scored per match | 0.9 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded per match | 0.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 26% | 26% |
| Both teams score | 42% | 39% |
| Total corners per match | 9.8 | 8.4 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 58% | 28% |
| Total yellow cards per match | 5.0 | 5.4 |
| Over 4.5 yellow cards | 67% | 56% |
Head to head
11 meetings in our database: Sarmiento Junin won 4, 5 draws, Barracas Central won 2. Per match: 2.5 goals, 8.4 corners, 5.9 yellow cards.
- 02.04.2026: Barracas Central 1:2 Sarmiento Junin
- 20.09.2025: Barracas Central 0:1 Sarmiento Junin
- 09.03.2025: Sarmiento Junin 1:1 Barracas Central
Referee
The referee has not been appointed yet — this usually becomes known 1–3 days before the match.
Every corners and cards line for the match and each team, team statistics for this season, three seasons and all data, the last 10 matches, referee and head to head — plus Toha, the AI analyst.
How we calculate
Corners and cards: our own model on the last 30 matches of each team, pulled toward the competition average; tested on 126,835 matches from 2014–2026, each forecast using only games played before it. Result and goals: our own goals model — attack and defence of each team over its last 30 matches compared with the competition average, Poisson distribution for each team’s goals; tested the same way on 445,280 matches since July 2023. Form, head to head and referee: our database of more than half a million matches.
Questions and answers
How many corners in Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
Our model expects 8.7 corners; the probability of over 9.5 is 38%.
How many yellow cards in Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
Our model expects 5.1 yellow cards; the probability of over 4.5 is 58%.
Who is more likely to win Sarmiento Junin vs Barracas Central?
Our model: Sarmiento Junin 42%, draw 29%, Barracas Central 29%.